A newly released independent poll shows Congressman Mike Lawler (R-NY) holding a five-point advantage over Democratic challenger Cait Conley in New York’s closely watched 17th Congressional District race.
The survey, conducted by co/efficient and released Thursday by the Lawler campaign, found Lawler leading Conley 50% to 45%, with 5% of likely general election voters still undecided. The poll surveyed nearly 1,300 likely voters and reported a margin of error of approximately 2.7 percentage points.
According to the poll, Lawler’s advantage is driven in part by strong support among independent voters, where he leads Conley 54% to 39%. The survey also found that 23% of registered Democrats said they would support Lawler.
The poll also gauged voter sentiment on broader political issues in the district. It found New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani with a 37% approval rating and 53% disapproval among respondents, while Governor Kathy Hochul received a 36% approval rating and 49% disapproval. Additionally, 63% of likely voters said they are concerned about the rise of socialism in New York, including 51% who described themselves as “very concerned.”
The release comes just weeks after House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC backing Conley, released its own poll showing the Democrat leading Lawler 51% to 45%. That survey was conducted by Democratic polling firm FM3 Research.
Lawler campaign manager Ciro Riccardi said the latest poll reflects the congressman’s continued strength with independent voters and argued it provides a more accurate picture of the race heading toward November. Conley’s campaign has not yet publicly responded to the new poll.
NY-17, which includes all of Rockland and Putnam counties as well as parts of Westchester and Dutchess counties, is expected to remain one of the most competitive House races in the country and could play a key role in determining control of Congress after the November election.
Cait canly will make it